Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has secured a fourth term as Brazil's president, winning 51.79% of the vote against Flávio Bolsonaro's 48.21%, according to figures from the Superior Electoral Court. For the gambling industry, the outcome changes little in practical terms: the online sports betting and casino market his own government helped build remains shut down, and operators now face another four years of uncertainty over whether it will reopen.
A Market Built, Then Dismantled
Brazil spent years constructing a licensing framework for online betting and gaming, only to suspend it less than two years after launch. The Sept. 25 provisional measure halted operations for companies that had paid licensing fees, built compliance infrastructure and hired local staff on the assumption that regulation, once granted, would hold. That assumption no longer looks safe. Flutter Entertainment, which suspended its Brazilian sports betting and iGaming business after the measure took effect, said it has no fresh comment following the election beyond its earlier statement opposing the prohibition and reviewing options, including a possible appeal.
The financial exposure is significant. Flutter has indicated that if it cannot resume operations in Brazil through the remainder of 2026, it expects to lose approximately $70 million in revenue and $20 million in adjusted EBITDA. The company had committed heavily to the market in 2025, acquiring a 56% stake in NSX and combining Betnacional with its existing Betfair Brazil business in a deal worth $674 million in total consideration. That investment was made on the premise of a stable regulated environment - a premise the government's own reversal has undercut.
Industry Pushes Back, Including on the Pitch
Trade bodies have taken their case public. The Brazilian Institute of Responsible Gaming (IBJR) and the National Association of Games and Lotteries (ANJL) launched a campaign, "Proibir não é proteger" ("Banning is not protecting"), that appeared on advertising boards and player shirts during October's Brasileirão matches, including games involving São Paulo FC and Flamengo. Their argument: prohibition does not eliminate demand for betting, it simply pushes it toward unlicensed platforms with none of the consumer protections or anti-fraud monitoring that licensed operators maintain. IBJR's Carlos Lima has argued the ban weakened safeguards against match-fixing, while ANJL's Plínio Lemos Jorge pointed to the scale of unauthorized activity, citing more than 30,000 active unlicensed betting sites in Brazil. Both associations have asked the Supreme Federal Court to suspend the ban or allow licensed operators to resume business while Congress decides the fate of the provisional measure.
Signs of Demand Moving Offshore
Early indicators suggest unauthorized betting activity has become more visible since the shutdown. Bet Legal reported unauthorized betting domains rising from 381 on Sept. 25 to a peak of 1,071 on Sept. 29 - an increase of roughly 181%. Blask data showed offshore operators accounting for 11.3% of Brazilian gambling-related search demand on Sept. 30, up from 3.4% on Sept. 24, though search interest alone does not confirm how much money has actually shifted to illegal sites. Brazilian authorities have responded by ramping up enforcement: by Sept. 29, they had requested removal of 5,209 gambling-related domains, with telecoms regulator Anatel ordering 2,387 blocked. H2 Gambling Capital estimates that R$25 billion ($4.8 billion) in annualized spending could move offshore if the ban persists - a projection, not confirmed lost revenue, but a signal of what regulators are trying to prevent.
What Comes Next for Operators
Sérgio Paulino, founder of All Bettors, does not expect a permanent ban to be the final outcome. He believes Congress could instead permit licensed gambling to continue under tighter conditions: higher taxes, stricter advertising limits, enhanced know-your-customer checks and restrictions on soccer sponsorships. He has speculated taxes could rise as high as 40%, pointing to the UK as a comparison - though no such figure has been proposed by Brazilian authorities, and the estimate remains his own.
Paulino expects smaller operators to exit if costs climb, while larger groups may retain licenses but redirect investment toward other Latin American markets such as Mexico, Argentina, Colombia and Peru. Jobs tied specifically to the Brazilian market could be cut or relocated, and some companies that paid licensing fees may pursue legal action to recover costs. He argues the dispute could drag on into 2027 or 2028, with Congress and the courts yet to settle whether the provisional measure becomes permanent law.
For Paulino, the more durable solution lies in stronger consumer protection rather than prohibition - audits, affordability checks and intervention when customers show signs of harmful gambling, paired with greater support for those experiencing gambling-related harm. Whether lawmakers agree remains the open question shaping Brazil's gambling market for the foreseeable future.